Market Regime: Bull or Bear Market Today?

How the market regime is measured

Seven mechanical signals, each with a fixed threshold: the S&P 500 against its 200-day average, a two-state hidden Markov volatility model on daily returns, the VIX term structure, the share of stocks above their 200-day average across our universe, the Baa credit spread, the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, and the Sahm rule for unemployment. A risk level counts the red and amber lights, and since 2000 a 10% or larger drop within three months followed low-risk days about 8% of the time, elevated days 18% and high-risk days 36%. The page also tracks the Shiller P/E (CAPE ratio) for valuation context, kept apart from the signals because it speaks to the next decade, not the next three months. The reading updates every trading day and is free to read. How to read the market regime.