How to Read Market Regime, CAPE and Seasonality

Step 1: Open the market page

Go to yrobot.us/market-analysis. No account is needed.

Step 2: Read the regime and sentiment panel

The panel shows the model's label for the current market state and a sentiment reading. Read the label as "what recent data looks like", not a forecast. Note the date on the panel.

Step 3: Check the CAPE gauge

CAPE is the price divided by 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings. A high reading means the market is expensive against its own history.

High CAPE has coexisted with rising markets for years. It speaks to long-run risk, not timing.

Step 4: Look at seasonality

Seasonality shows how the current calendar month has behaved historically. These are averages across years, with wide variation. Don't trade on it alone.

Step 5: Scan the macro panel

The macro panel (data from FRED) shows rates, inflation and similar series. Look at the direction over months, not one print.

Step 6: Combine the readings

A stretched CAPE plus a weak regime says be careful with position sizes; it is not a signal to exit. Then go to a stock page and check the stock itself (see the guide on checking a stock).

What this can't tell you

When a turn happens, or how your stock will behave.

ŷRobot is an analysis tool, not financial advice. Estimates can be wrong and past patterns may not repeat.