HDCONSUMER CYCLICALFree preview

The Home Depot Inc

Last close: $297.21Last updated: Sep 21, 2026

HD

The Home Depot Inc

INDUSTRY:HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL
SECTOR:CONSUMER CYCLICAL

The Home Depot, Inc., commonly known as Home Depot, is the largest home improvement retailer in the United States, supplying tools, construction products, and services. The company is headquartered in incorporated Cobb County, Georgia, with an Atlanta mailing address.

OVERALL AI RATING

73/100

BULLISH

81% confidence · 8 of 8 factors

Higher when more factors have data and they agree with each other.

Bullish outlook primarily supported by attractive discount to model fair value and strong seasonal tailwinds.

FUNDAMENTALS OUTLOOK

62

/100

Favorable

+5% vs the model's 6-month fair value; ranks in the top 43% of mega caps by model upside.

Valuation against the model's 6-month target, reported financials, P/E versus this company's own history, and analyst consensus.

Fair Value

weight 0.3

+5.0% vs fair value (57th pct of mega caps)

Fundamentals

weight 0.12

revenue +2%, margin 13%, FCF yield +4.7%

P/E vs History

weight 0.08

P/E 20.4 vs 19.8 avg (+0.2σ)

Analyst Consensus

weight 0.08

consensus

SEASONALITY OUTLOOK

100

/100

Strong

Exceptional seasonal history with expected return of +18.0%.

The seasonal price model at both scored horizons.

Seasonal Forecast · 90d

weight 0.2

+24.2% expected

Seasonal Forecast · 30d

weight 0.04

+18.0% 30d

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

50

/100

Neutral

Neutral market momentum and balanced indicators.

The volatility penalty. The chart classifier's short-horizon read is shown for reference but no longer weighs on the score.

Chart Signal

informational · no weight

+0.11

Volatility

weight 0.03

0.30 ann.

How the rating is built — each factor's weight × signal contributes to the composite; the contributions sum to the overall score. A factor with no data counts as neutral, so it neither helps nor hurts.

Fair Value

weight 0.3

How far today's price sits from the model's 6-month fair value estimate, ranked against companies of similar size.

+5.0% vs fair value (57th pct of mega caps)

+5.2

Seasonal Forecast · 90d

weight 0.2

The seasonal price model projected 90 days out, as an expected return. It reads this stock's own price history and repeating calendar cycles — not company news, earnings, or business quality. Same model as the 30-day factor below, read at a longer horizon.

+24.2% expected

+23.5

Chart Signal

informational · no weight

A machine-learning classifier reading momentum and trend structure across daily and weekly price bars. Needs about 5 years of trading history. Shown for information only: it reads roughly five days ahead, shorter than the score's horizon, so it carries no weight in the AI Score.

+0.11

+0.0

Fundamentals

weight 0.12

Reported results, not projections: revenue growth, operating margin, and free cash flow measured against market value. Loss-making or cash-burning companies score negative here.

revenue +2%, margin 13%, FCF yield +4.7%

+6.2

P/E vs History

weight 0.08

Today's price-to-earnings against this company's own trailing average, in standard deviations. Needs positive earnings.

P/E 20.4 vs 19.8 avg (+0.2σ)

-1.0

Analyst Consensus

weight 0.08

Wall Street consensus ratings, weighted by conviction.

consensus

+6.5

Seasonal Forecast · 30d

weight 0.04

The same seasonal price model as the 90-day factor above, read 30 days out. A near-term and a medium-term view of one forecast, which is why they can disagree.

+18.0% 30d

+4.7

Volatility

weight 0.03

An annualized volatility penalty. High volatility lowers the score; low volatility never raises it.

0.30 ann.

+0.0

Reader questions

Questions about HD

Is HD overvalued or undervalued right now?

As of Sep 21, 2026, ŷRobot's fair-value model estimates The Home Depot Inc (HD) at $312.21 against a last close of $297.21, implying 5.0% upside to the model's estimate.

Is HD's chart signal bullish or bearish?

The chart-signal model classifies HD as Neutral as of Sep 21, 2026, with a signal score of 0.11 on a -1 to 1 scale.

What is HD's ŷRobot AI score?

HD scores 73 out of 100 on ŷRobot's AI composite, which measures how strongly the fair-value and chart models agree, as of Sep 21, 2026.

Is HD stock expensive on P/E and P/S?

HD trades at 23.1 times earnings and 1.9 times sales as of Sep 21, 2026.

What does HD's seasonal forecast show?

ŷRobot's seasonal forecast curve for HD reads +18.0% at 30 days, +24.2% at 90 days, and +28.0% at one year as of Sep 21, 2026. Seasonal tendencies are historical patterns, not predictions.

How fast is HD growing?

The Home Depot Inc's revenue growth is +1.8% and free-cash-flow growth is -42.5% on the latest reported figures.

Methodology & trust

What this is (and isn’t)

These outputs are generated by machine learning models trained on historical price, fundamental, and volume data. The models summarize historical data and current model outputs — they do not predict the future or constitute personalized investment advice. All figures are updated on a regular cadence and reflect the most recent available data at time of generation.

ŷRobot provides research and information, not personalized financial advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.